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US government bond issuance in 2008-2009 will shatter all previous records. Fortunately, risk tolerance remains low as a result of the ongoing uncertainty surrounding the credit crisis,and demand for US Treasuries remains proportionally high. However, analysts are beginning to wonder…
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Despite a late 2008 rally on the basis of improved risk tolerance, the prospects for emerging market currencies remain grim. The decline in commodity prices have deprived many such countries, namely Russia and Venezuela, of much-need export revenue. Moreover, the…
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The last two weeks have been eventful for the Euro: the common currency celebrated its 10th anniversary, Slovakia became the 16th member currency, and 2008 came to a volatile close. Analysts have taken advantage of this confluence of developments to…
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Economic and monetary fundamentals throughout the world have become so paltry that one analyst notes tongue-and-cheek that investing in forex has become tantamount to identifying the “least worst” currencies. In virtually every country, all economic indicators are pointing downward, with…
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As 2008 comes to a violent end, forex analysts are releasing their predictions for 2009. Most believe that risk aversion and interest rate discrepancies will cease to weigh on forex markets, especially compared to 2008, when investors unwound carry trades…
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While the Australian Dollar and New Zealand Kiwi technically started 2009 in the black, most analysts believe that both currencies will continue their record declines that began in 2008. All economic indicators continue to point downward, due to the adverse…
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The Central Bank of Vietnam finally acceded to reality and devalued its currency, the Vietnam Dong, by 3%. Prior to the change, the Dong (as well as its neighbor, the Chinese Yuan, which has also experienced a decline) was one…
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As investors gradually re-acquaint themselves with risk-taking, the interest rate story is once again dominating forex markets. For the last few weeks, this meant that investors were taking advantage of record-low US interest rates to fund carry trades in riskier…
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While the Yen’s 30% rise in 2008 is no mystery (a result of the unwinding of carry trades), its performance nonetheless defies economic fundamentals. Exports have fallen and industrial production has collapsed, such that recession now appears inevitable. Japan is…
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In recent years, the idea of parity seemed to pop up repeatedly in forex markets. First, the Canadian Dollar breached the mythical 1:1 barrier against the USD; then, it looked as though the Australian Dollar would follow suit. The most…
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